广东省碳减排总量目标的地区分解及其盈亏格局

Regional Decomposition of Carbon Reduction Target and Its Pattern of Surplus and Deficit in Guangdong Province

合理界定初始排放权并进行排放权交易是实现减排目标和减排资源最优配置的关键。对低碳试点省广东进行减排目标地区分解，既能明确减排责任，又能使碳交易变得更加明确而具有可操作性。设定广东碳减排目标的假设情景，以碳排放核算方法和最优经济增长模型为基础，引入兼顾人均平等和历史责任的“碳预算”思路，对广东省减排目标进行地区分解，计算各市排放权配额并测算未来时期排放权的盈亏格局，初步模拟广东省各市之间“碳交易”基础。结果表明：1）1985-2020年全省累积碳排放配额区间为524659.1855~542518.5652万t，人均碳排放配额区间为57.0655~59.0080 t/人。人均碳排放配额、人口数量和实际碳排放量是影响各市排放权配额的重要因素。2）预计到2020年7个城市将出现“碳预算”赤字，主要分布于珠三角；14个城市拥有“碳预算”盈余，集中分布在粤北山区和东西两翼。

Making a study on the accounting model of carbon emissions and dynamic optimal model of endogenous economic growth, this paper uses the data of carbon emissions from 1985 to 2020 in Guangdong Province and its cities, introduces the idea of “carbon budget” according to the set scenarios of the reduction targets of carbon emissions, which takes the principles of equitable distribution of per capita carbon emissions and historical responsibility for carbon emissions into account, decomposes carbon emission reduction targets regionally, calculates the carbon emissions quotas of the cities in the Province, and estimates the pattern of surplus and deficit of carbon emissions in future periods, preliminarily simulates the basis of “Trading the Rights of Carbon Emissions” among the cities. It shows that： Firstly, the cumulative quotas of carbon emissions in Guangdong Province for the period from 1985 to 2020 are between 5 246.591 9 million tons and 5 425.185 7 million tons, and per capita quotas of carbon emission are between 57.065 5 tons and 59.008 0 tons. Per capita quotas of carbon emission, population and the cumulative history of carbon emissions are the decisive factors in allocation result of carbon emission rights of the cities in the Province. Population movements will affect the number of regional carbon emissions. After the assessment year, the reducing of total regional population will ease the pressure of carbon emissions, and vice versa. Secondly, there are seven cities, which are mainly distributed in the economically developed Pearl River Delta region, emitting carbon beyond the carbon budget quota standards. Those cities can be ranked in order of their deficits from large to small：Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Huizhou. Meanwhile, there are 14 cities, mainly located in the east, west and the north areas of the Province, have carbon budget surpluses. According to their surpluses from large to small, those cities are ranked as：Zhanjiang, Jieyang, Shantou, Meizhou, Shanwei, Heyuan, Maoming, Zhaoqing, Yangjiang, Yunfu, Qingyuan, Chaozhou, Jiangmen and Shaoguan. As the equilibrium conditions that marginal emission cost equals marginal emission abatement cost would enhance industrial upgrading for a city and convert its development to a low carbon emission model, the cities with surplus carbon emission rights could get the transferable incomes, while those with deficit carbon emission rights could reduce the abatement cost through market transactions of carbon emission rights, that would improve the allocation efficiency of emission rights.