自然灾害风险评估与灾害易损性研究进展

Advances of Research on Natural Disaster Risk Assessment and Disaster Vulnerability

自然灾害风险评估是区域减灾防灾重要的基础工作之一。从风险概念和风险度的表达入手,探讨了自然灾害风险评估的对象及其构建的指标体系,对主要自然灾害风险评估方法进行了综合比较,并对灾害易损性评估研究进行了总结,认为对灾害风险下的生态系统易损性关注不多。因此以区域为研究尺度,构建了生态系统灾害风险评估框架,选择危害风险性指数反映灾害危险程度,选择防灾能力指数、承灾能力指数、恢复力指数等构建了生态系统灾害易损性评估指标体系。在对自然灾害风险评估研究认真梳理的基础上,认为复杂性灾害系统的研究、灾害易损性基础理论及定量方法的探索、自然灾害风险研究体系的时空尺度的扩展、自然灾害风险评估精度和可信度的提高是未来灾害风险评估值得重视的趋势。

Natural disaster risk assessment is an important basic work of regional disaster prevention and re-duction.Starting from the concept of risk and the expression of risk degree,the object of natural disaster risk as-sessment and the index system of its construction are discussed.The main assessment methods are comprehensively compared,and the disaster vulnerability assessment is summarized,and the vulnerability of ecosystem in disaster risk is believed to be less concerned.Therefore,the ecosystem disaster risk assessment framework is constructed based on regional research scale.Hazard risk index are chosen to reflect the hazard degree,and disaster prevention ability,disaster bearing capacity index,restoring force index,etc.are chosen to construct vulnerability assessment index system of ecosystem disasters.According to carding of the former researches on natural disaster risk assess-ment,worthy trends of the future disaster risk assessment are considered as research on complex disaster systems, exploration of the basic theory and quantitative methods on disaster vulnerability,Extended spatial and temporal scales of natural disaster risk research system,and to improve the accuracy and credibility of natural disaster risk assessment.