基于分级预警的水库供水风险及准确度研究

Study on risk estimation and its accuracy in early warning system of reservoir water-supply dispatching

水库优化供水调度效果如何很大程度上取决于对不确定因素的预测,本文根据对未来水情的估计,通过分析水库群现状水势指标D、未来时段内的缺水量指标S和水库供水预警指标SAI,建立水库供水预警系统。同时融入决策者利益趋势和风险偏好,确定相应的供水应变措施,制定出不同风险程度下的最佳供水调度策略,并基于对未来来水的乐观与悲观性估计,对供水预警系统的准确度进行分析和评估。实例计算表明,本文建立的水库供水预警系统能够合理、有效的为调度操作人员提供及时的决策,对于降低水库调度风险,提高水资源利用率,具有重要的理论意义与应用前景。

The results of reservoir water-supply optimal dispatching much depend on prediction of uncertain factors. This article develops an early warning system of reservoir water-supply dispatching with an analysis on status quo reservoir water-supply index, future reservoir water-supply index, reservoir water-supply alarming index, based on estimation of future reservoir regime. We can determine water-supply countermeasures and formulate an optimum water-supply scheduling strategy at risk of different degrees by integrating the decision-naaker＇s interests and risk preference into the system, and the accuracy of the system can be evaluated with optimistic and pessimistic estimations on future water regime. A practical example calculation shows that this early warning system can offer in-time decision for operators reasonably and effectively and it has theoretical significance and application prospects in reducing reservoir water-supply dispatching risk and improving water resources utilization.