现行水电行业标准隐存的梯级水库大坝群风险分析

Risk analysis for dam group of cascade reservoirs based on current hydropower industry standards

基于流域水能资源梯级式开发已成为我国水利水电发展的趋势,但也存在着不容忽视的安全风险问题。在提出风险损失指数目标函数的基础上,以一梯级水库大坝群模型做了溃坝风险分析,研究了基于单库设计的现行水电行业标准应用于梯级水库设计的风险差别,计算分析结果显示梯级水库大坝群的系统风险要与按照单库设计的各大坝的风险总和有差别。提出了梯级水库大坝风险设计比较方法,用以评价流域梯级新建大坝节点的合理性及系统薄弱环节的识别。

Cascade development of rivers has been a trend of China＇s water conservancy and hydropower, but the existing security risks of this development model can not be ignored. In this study, an index of risk loss was derived with reasonable assumptions and applied to risk analysis of seismic failure in design of cascade dam group. Calculations of this case show that the system risk of cascade dam group is greater than the sum of individual risks of all the dams in the group, each of which was designed separately according to the current hydropower industry standards. A comparison method of cascade dam risks was formulated to evaluate the rationality of adding a dam node to an existing group and identify the weak links of a cascade reservoir system.