气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展

Advances in the Study of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Disaster

气候变化背景下包括洪水在内的极端天气与气候事件频发已引起国际社会的广泛关注,研究气候变化对洪水灾害的影响既是全面理解气候变化影响的重要内容,也是减轻洪水灾害风险的实际需要。从气象水文和灾害风险两大领域综述了气候变化对洪水灾害影响的研究进展,从反映洪水灾害系统的雨情、水情和灾情角度,全面总结了当前国内外对极端降水、极端径流和洪水损失的变化及归因研究,梳理了研究方法与研究成果方面的主要进展及存在的问题,并探讨了未来的研究方向。指出加强数据积累,完善气候模式与水文模型的耦合,加强承灾体脆弱性及其变化的评估,综合洪水致灾过程与灾情结果的分析,推动气象水文与灾害风险学科领域的交叉研究应成为未来研究的重点。

The occurrence of more frequent extreme climate and weather events in the context of climate change has aroused extensive concern of global society. It has posed a great challenge for global sustainable devel- opment. The study of climate change impacts on flood disaster is an important part of overall climate change impacts research which would promote the scientific understanding towards the effects of changing environment. Meanwhile, it is also of great significance for flood risk reduction. In this paper, the advances in the study of climate change impacts on flood disaster are reviewed with special focus on the latest research progress in the fields of meteorology, hydrology and disaster risk research. To gain a systematic view of climate change impacts on flood, the review is carried out with analyses of three important components of flood disaster system, i.e. extreme precipitation, extreme discharge and flood loss, and the detection, projection and attribution of changes in these three elements are specifically summarized in terms of current research methods and major findings. Then, existing problems in pres- ent studies and future research directions with regard to this issue are discussed. It is proposed that in order to pro- mote the research in this field, the development and accumulation of better datasets, the improvement in the cou- pling of climate and hydrological models, the implement of flood vulnerability dynamic assessment should be given more attention. In addition, the efforts to integrate the analysis of flood hazard process and flood loss and conduct interdisciplinary researches should be the emphases of future work.