出口对中国区域碳排放影响的空间效应测度——基于1997-2007年区域间投入产出表的实证分析

Measuring of Chinese regional carbon emission spatial effects induced by exports based on Chinese multi-regional input-output table during 1997-2007

基于投入产出分析理论,本文改进了测度出口引致区域碳排放直接、间接、溢出和反馈四种空间效应公式,并将测度经济发展的溢出和反馈理念扩展到出口对区域间碳排放双向影响的研究中。研究结果显示,1997-2007年全国实际出口引致8区域碳排放的直接效应均有所下降,除了北部沿海区域和西北区域,其他6个区域的间接效应也均有所下降。大部分沿海地区出口引致碳排放的溢出效应较高,北部和东部沿海区域由于与内地地区经济联系密切所受到的反馈效应也较高,但南部沿海区域由于加工贸易比重较高,所受到反馈效应相对少一些,京津区域由于城市职能定位经济辐射有限,所受到的反馈效应最低。内陆地区由于长期以来作为沿海地区的能源资源供应地以及对国内市场的依赖,出口引致碳排放的反馈效应普遍较高,其中西北和中部区域较为明显。注重区域间横向联合减排以及适宜性的区域减排政策有助于全国整体减排目标的实现。

Based on the multi-regional input-output theory, this paper improves four traditional input-output formulas about exports resulting in multi-regional carbon emissions spatial effects which include direct effect, indirect effect, spillover effect and feedback effect. And the latter two formulas are to measure the bidirectional influences of carbon emissions induced by regional exports between two regions. The results suggest that the direct effects of China＇s eight regions induced by national exports decreased from 1997 to 2007, and the indirect effects induced by national exports also decreased in most parts of China except the northern coastal and northwestern parts. During this period, most of China＇s coastal regions had strong spillover effects generated by their exports. The northern coastal and eastern coastal regions had stronger feedback effects, while the southern coastal region had weaker feedback effects and Beijing-Tianjin region had the weakest feedback effect brought by their exports respectively. All of the inland regions had strong feedback effects, especially for the northwest and central China due to their exports. More attention should be paid to interregional joint implementation so as to effectively achieve China＇s national carbon-reduction target.