北京市人口时空变化与情景预测研究

Study on spatio-temporal change and simulation of population in Beijing based on census data

利用第五次和第六次人口普查数据,分析北京全域乡镇街道尺度人口空间变化格局特征,并借助CA-MAS模型对未来城市人口格局进行情景模拟,以期增进对北京人口时空动态的认识,为北京城市管理决策和宏观调控提供科学参考。研究表明:1 2000-2010年,北京常住人口年均增长率高达3.5%,年均增加近60万人,是同期我国人口增长最快的特大城市之一;2北京全域人口变化在空间上具有明显的圈层式特征,集中表现为中心区人口增长几乎停滞、近郊区人口快速增长、远郊城市发展新区人口高速增长、远郊生态涵养区往往仅区县政府驻地及重点乡镇人口明显增长;3基于CA-MAS的情景模拟分析表明,在自发布局情景下,就业机会进一步向城市中心集聚,人口居住不断郊区化,这将增大城市的通勤压力,加剧城市交通拥堵状况,而通过调整就业参数,强化工作地居住功能的引导政策,则能在一定程度上解决城市内部空间尺度产城失衡的问题,可促进小城镇群的形成,有利于降低城市通勤压力,发挥城市的辐射和扩散作用。本文认为,为实现北京人口空间布局优化,应着力促进就业与居住相协调,推动区域间公共资源均等化,规划多中心组团发展。

This study mainly aims to explore the spatio-temporal patterns and to simulate the future scenario of population change in Beijing based on the fifth and sixth census data at township level. The main contents and results were summed up as follows： （1） The resident population of Beijing increased with an average annual rate of 3.5% between 2000 and 2010, and the population increased by 0.6 million every year. Beijing was one of the megacities which were classified into the first range for their great amount of increased population. （2） There was an obvious circle structure in space. The population of inner city was almost stagnant; it had a rapid growth in the suburbs, and a high rate in the outer city. However, it had an increase only in the county seat and the key towns in the ecological conservation region of Beijing. （3） In terms of the CA/MAS scenario simulation analysis, in the spontaneous layout scenario, employment opportunities will be further agglomerated to the inner city, while population is suburbanized constantly. This will increase the city＇s commuter stress and aggravate the condition of city traffic block. When adjusting the parameters of employment and thus strengthening the guide policy of urban population living in working function, the problem of imbalance between industrial space and residential space in the urban internal space scale can be solved. At the same time, the formation of cluster of small towns can be promoted and urban commuter pressure can be reduced. Then comes the city＇ s radiation and diffusion effect. The authors suggest that, in order to optimize the spatial distribution of population in Beijing, more efforts should be made to coordinate the relationship between employment and residents. An important way is to accelerate regional coordinated development, and to plan multi-centers development as groups.