城市居民非工作活动的家内外时间分配及影响因素——以北京上地—清河地区为例

Time allocation to in-home and out-of-home non-work activities of urban residents:A case study of Shangdi-Qinghe area in Beijing

中国各大城市交通供求不平衡的问题日益凸显,如何科学合理地分析、预测、引导交通出行需求已成为城市可持续发展的核心问题。西方对城市居民出行需求的研究已经由基于出行的分析转向基于活动的分析,并且认为家内/家外活动决策与出行需求的产生密切相关;而国内少有从家内/家外活动时间分配的视角透视居民出行需求的产生机理的研究。基于2012年北京市居民日常活动与交通出行调查所采集的第一手数据,本研究以北京上地—清河地区为例,构建结构方程模型,分析工作日与休息日家内/家外的非工作活动的时间分配特征及其影响因素,以此尝试对居民非工作出行需求的产生机理进行解读。研究表明:家内活动与家外活动之间存在显著的替代关系;家内/家外非工作活动时间分配受到工作与通勤时长、社会经济属性的影响,并且不同类型的非工作活动的家内/家外时间分配存在内生联系。研究结果将为居民出行需求预测与引导提供参考依据。

With the growing mismatch between transport supply and demand in urban China, the analysis, forecasting and guidance of travel demand in a scientific and effective way has become a vital question for the sustainability of urban development. In western countries, the research of travel demand has developed from a trip-based perspective towards an activitybased perspective, and the analysis of the in-home and out-of-home activity participation, which is believed to be closely related to travel demand by many scholars, has provided significant implications for the research of travel demand. In China, however, there are few studies on the mechanism of travel demand from the perspective of in-home and out-of-home activity participation. Based on the first-hand data collected in the Beijing Residents＇ Activity and Travel Survey in 2012, this paper looked into the time allocation of in-home and out-of- home non-work activities of urban residents with an activity-based analysis of 460 respondents from the Shangdi-Qinghe area in Beijing, and thus tried to interpret the mechanism of the non-work travel demand of urban residents from an activity-based perspective. A series of structural equation models were applied to explore the determination of whether a non-work activity was pursued at home or away from home. The result of the models showed a high degree of good-of-fit. There were several main findings of the research： Firstly, there were significant differences between the duration of the in-home activities and that of the out-of-home activities. Secondly, there was a significant substitution between in-home and out-of-home activities. Thirdly, the time allocation of in-home and out- of-home non-work activities was affected by the work and commute duration and the sociodemographic characteristics, and there were endogenous links among different types of nonwork activities. The result of this study may provide good implications for the modelling and influence of residents＇ travel demand.