汇改前后人民币汇率传递的贸易收支效应——基于各省市面板数据模型的实证分析

The Effect of RMB's Exchange Rates on Trade Balance

本文基于中国31个省市自治区1997-2012年的数据,分东部、中部和西部等样本实证分析了人民币实际有效汇率、GDP、FDI和汇改政策虚拟变量等对进出口影响的地区差异和动态效应,采用GMM分析方法,实证发现人民币实际有效汇率对进出口贸易有一定的影响,FDI和GDP对进出口有促进作用和替代作用,且存在着区域差异,因此建议在逐步进行人民币汇率改革的同时兼顾各地区经济的均衡和可持续发展,控制可能存在的风险。

Based on the data of China＇ s provinces, municipalities or autonomous regions from 1997 to 2012, and divided the sample into the eastern, central and western, this paper empirical analyzes the regional differences and dynamic effects that the RMB＇s real effective exchange rate, GDP, FDI and policy dummy variables impact on the import and export. This paper uses the GMM methods to find that the effective exchange rate of RMB＇ s influence over the import and export is small, FDI and GDP can promote the import and export, but there are significant regional differences. So the proposal is that we should carry out the reform of RMB exchange rate gradually, at the same time take the economic＇ s balance and sustainable development into consideration and control the potential risks.