基于双响应面法的地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型研究

Research on Surrogate Model of Numerical Simulation Model of Groundwater Based on Multiple Regression Analysis

以内蒙古金泉工业园区水源地为研究区,在已有地下水流数值模拟模型基础上,采用拉丁超立方抽样方法,获取输入(抽水量)数据集和输出(地下水位降深)数据集,运用双响应面方法,建立了地下水流数值模拟模型的替代模型——双响应面模型。经验证,双响应面模型计算出的地下水水位降深均值与地下水流数值模拟模型计算出的地下水水位降深均值的平均相对拟合误差为0.22%,地下水水位降深剩余标准差的平均相对拟合误差为0.03%,相对拟合误差都比较小,说明所建立的双响应面模型可以有效地替代地下水流数值模拟模型,这为地下水资源优化管理中替代模型的建立提供了有效的科学论证。

Jinquan Industrial Park groundwater sources in Neimenggu was selected as the study area ,based upon numerical simulation model of groundwater in this study ,Latin Hypercube Sampling was used to obtain input （pumping） and output（water level draw-down） data sets ,and multiple regression analytic method was proposed to establish an surrogate model of the groundwater numerical model ,namely dual response surface model .The fitting mean relative error of mean groundwater level drawdown obtained by dual response surface model and numerical simulation model of groundwater was 0 .22% ,and the fitting mean relative error of the remai-ning average relative standard deviation of groundwater level drawdown was 0 .03% .So the fitting error was small ,which indicated that the dual response surface model can effectively replace groundwater numerical model .This provides an effective scientific basis for establishing management surrogate model of resource optimization of groundwater .