摘要
针对高堆石坝施工期风险随施工进程而变化的问题,以水布垭堆石坝工程为例,先利用WBS-RBS对其进行风险辨识,再根据风险辨识结果,采用层次分析法(AHP)和风险度理论计算各子工程的风险度;同时考虑施工组织设计和工程特性,将施工期分为四个施工阶段,将子工程及其风险度在各施工阶段进行分配;最后对各施工阶段进行对比分析,通过总体风险度、平均风险度、控制性工程三个指标衡量各施工阶段的风险特性,找出了各施工阶段间的风险变化规律。结果表明,该方法有效可行,为高堆石坝工程施工期动态风险分析提供了依据。
In view of the phenomenon that during construction period, the risk of high rockfill dam varies in accordance with construction progress, taking Shuibuya rockfill dam as an example, WBS-RBS is used to do risk identification. Based on the results of risk identification, AHP and risk degree theory are adopted to calculate the risk degree of each sub-project. Considering the construction organization design and project characteristics, the construction period is divided into four construction phases. All sub-projects and their risk degree are allocated to each construction phase. Finally, the overall risk level, average risk degree, control project are taken as indicators to measure the risk of each construction phase through comparative analysis, and it finds the change rule of risk in each construction phase. The results show that this method is effective and feasible, which can provide the basis for dynamic risk analysis of high rockfill dam during construction period.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2014年第10期138-141,172,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51379192)
