基于社会网络的企业突发事件舆情扩散仿真研究

Diffusion Simulation of Enterprise Emergency Public Opinion Based on Social Network

在对社会网络环境下企业突发事件舆情扩散机理分析的基础上,依次引入了基本企业突发事件舆情扩散模型、社会网络中考虑直接传播的扩散模型和同时考虑直接与间接传播的扩散模型,并采用系统仿真法分析和比较了三个模型模拟结果之间的差异。结果表明:传播周期、免疫周期、品牌信任重塑周期以及社会接触网络结构等因素都对企业突发事件舆情爆发的阈值以及舆情扩散的极大值、稳定水平和波动性有很大影响;而且,同时考虑直接和间接传播的舆情扩散模型更为符合现实实际。

The public opinion diffusion mechanism existing in the social network was analyzed. Then three diffusion models, a basic diffusion dynamic model about public opinion, a diffusion model related to the direct transmission, and a diffusion model related to the direct and the indirect transmission were introduced in turn. At last, system simulation method was employed to analyze the dynamic behavior of these models, and the comparisons of simulation results of three models were made. The results indicate as following： diffusion period, immune period, brand reliance remodeling period, together with the structure of the public social network all have a great impact on the outburst threshold value, maximum of the diffusion, stability level, and fluctuation of public opinion.