基于回归分析的三次产业产值研究

The research of output value in three industries based on regression analysis

在国民经济的研究中,三次产业的产值反映了GDP的大小,预测三次产业的产值对GDP的预测起着至关重要的作用.基于1981年到2012年的统计数据,建立了指数回归模型.研究表明:通过指数回归模型,预测第一、第三产业产值的相对误差小于0.07,该模型对三次产业产值的预测具有很高的使用价值.

In research of the national economy, GDP can be reflected by the output value of three industries, so it is important to predict GDP via the prediction of the output value of three industries. The data herein come from National Statistics from 1981 to 2012, on the basis of which the exponent regression model was established. The study results demonstrate that the relative error of prediction in the output value of primary and tertiary industries is less than 0. 07 , indicating that the model is very useful to predict the output value in three industries.