一种基于改进灰关联度的变权系数组合预测模型

Changing Weight Combination Forecasting Model Based on Improved Grey Incidence

通过引入诱导有序加权调和平均(IOWHA)算子,提出基于改进灰关联度的IOWHA算子组合预测模型,并给出了优性组合预测模型的概念。此组合预测模型是一种变权系数组合预测模型,可以克服传统组合预测方法赋予不变的加权平均系数和以单一误差衡量预测精度的缺陷。最后给出实例说明新方法能有效提高组合预测精度。

Based on induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging （ IOWHA） operator,a weight-changed combination forecasting model was proposed ,and the conception of superior combination forecasting model was given .The model is a changed weight factors model which can overcome some deficiencies in weigh -ting and using single error index as forecasting precision measure of traditional combination forecasting model.Finally,an example was illustrated to show that the new model can improve forecasting precision effectively .