金华市近30年气象要素变化对晚稻单产的影响

Effects of meteorological changes in the past 30 years on the yield of late rice in Jinhua

利用1980—2012年金华市气象站的日平均温度、降水量、日照时数和同期晚稻产量等资料,对金华地区晚稻相对气象产量与其生长期间气象因子的关系进行分析,探索气象要素变化对晚稻产量的影响,并籍此建立产量预报方程。结果表明,金华地区近30年晚稻单产总体呈上升趋势,其中,以20世纪80年代增速较快,自20世纪90年代起增速放缓;同期晚稻生长期间的平均温度也呈上升趋势,其中,2003—2009年上升幅度较大;但近30年降水量无明显变化趋势。晚稻相对气象产量与7月中旬、8月中旬的平均温度以及8月中旬—9月上旬的积温呈负相关,与7月中旬降水量、9月上旬日照时数呈正相关。基于近30年数据资料建立产量预报方程,经检验,其历史拟合误差率为4.31%。用该方程预测2010—2012年晚稻产量,误差率为2.62%。

Based on the meteorological record including daily mean temperature,daily precipitation,total sunshine hours and late rice yield data from 1980 to 2012 in Jinhua,the relationship between meteorological change and late rice yield was analyzed,and a forecast model was thus established. It was shown that the yield of late rice kept on growing in the past 30 years. The increase rate was greater in the 1980 s,and it slowed down since 1990 s. Meanwhile,temperature increased quickly,especially during 2003- 2009. But,there was no obvious change trend for precipitation. The relative meteorological yield of late rice was significantly negatively correlated with the average temperature in mid-July and mid-August,and accumulated temperature from mid-August to early September,yet positively correlated with precipitation in mid-July and sunshine hours in early September. The historical fitting error rate of the established forecast model was 4. 31%,and the predicted late rice yield in 2010- 2012 by this model were close to the real data,with an error rate of 2. 62%.