部门冲击与整体冲击的宏观经济效应分析——以8大部门供给冲击对整体通货膨胀的影响为例

Analysis of Macro-economy Effect of Sector Shocks and Aggregate Shocks——Taking the Impact of Eight Sectors Supply Shocks on Aggregate Inflation as an Example

基于不同部门异质性显著存在的事实,以我国统计CPI的8大部门为例,采用2002年第1季度至2012年第4季度的数据,考察部门外生供给冲击与总供给冲击对于整体通货膨胀的影响,发现食品部门供给冲击对于整体通货膨胀的冲击效应最大,并且不同部门的外生供给冲击对于整体通货膨胀具有不同的冲击效应;在此基础上,条件方差分解的结果表明,食品部门、衣着部门供给冲击以及总供给冲击在推动整体通货膨胀波动中扮演着重要的角色,而其余部门供给冲击对于整体通货膨胀波动具有相对较小但却持续性较强的作用。研究表明,忽略不同部门的异质性而基于整体经济建模,可能引起结论的偏误;我国食品部门供给冲击对于通货膨胀具有最大的效应,稳定物价首先需要稳定食品部门的价格。

Based on the fact that there is significant heterogeneity in different sectors, by taking 8 sectors for Chinato make CPI statistics as an example, by using the data during the first season of 2002-the fourth season of 2012,the impact of the shocks of the exogenous supply of the sectors and aggregate supply shocks on aggregate inflation isexamined, and the results show that the effect of food sector supply shocks on the aggregate inflation shocks is thebiggest, that the exogenous supply shocks from different sectors have different shocks effect on total inflation, onthis basis, conditional variance solution results reveal that the supply shocks from food sector and clothes sector aswell as total supply shocks play an important role in the boosting of the volatility of aggregate inflation. However,the supply shocks from other sectors have relatively corresponding small but strongly lasting effect on aggregateinflation volatility. The research shows that overlooking the heterogeneity from different sectors but constructing