基于高阶灰色系统模型对水产品产量数据的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Output of Aquatic Products Based on High Order Gray System Model

基于高阶灰色系统模型理论对具有指数型增长且有微小扰动的时间序列进行建模的良好拟合特性,文章依次用GM(1,1),GM(2,1),GM(3,1)模型对中国历年水产品产量时间序列进行了实证分析。在对我国水产品产量数据的拟合过程中,因该数据具有指数型增长和随机性的特征,高阶灰色模型GM(2,1)较比普通的模型GM(1,1)有更好的拟合效果;同时因数据变化具有显著的阶段性,遂GM(3,1)的建模结果很不理想,不具有实际意义。文章对我国水产品产量数据所作的数学分析对有关部门进行水产品政策的研究与制定有借鉴作用。

Based on high order gray system model theory, it has good fitting characteristics for modeling the time series with the factor of exponentially increase and small perturbations. In this paper, the empirical analysis of the time series of the output of aquatic products in China is executed by using and model. In the process of data fitting, because of this data has the factor of exponentially increase and randomness, high order gray system model has better fitting effect than ordinary model; besides this, for the data changes with significant difference, so the result of model is not very ideal, it has not Practical significance. Comprehensive analysis and accurate evaluation of aquatic products market play an important role for promoting the development of fishery production and fishery economy.