碳排放现状及驱动因素分解实证分析研究——以东莞市为例

Study of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Status and Its Propelling Factors in Dongguan City

根据IPCC碳排放计算指南核算东莞市2005年-2011年期间能源消费的碳排放量,并进行现状分析和采用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI)因素分解分析。研究结果表明:碳排放总量以5.8%速度增长,而碳排放强度以5.8%速度递减;煤是碳排放主源,但所占比重逐年下降;工业碳排放量比重最大,但是增速减慢;交通业、服务业和居民生活碳排放量及所占比重逐年增加;经济规模的扩大是拉动东莞市人均碳排放的决定因素,累计效应远高于能源效率和能源结构对碳减排影响。

According to IPCC carbon accounting guidelines,the carbon dioxide discharge situation of Dongguan City from 2005 to 2011 is measured,and the present conditions are analyzed as well.One the other hand,by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia （LMDI） method,the carbon dioxide discharge is factor-decomposed,thus the impact on carbon dioxide emissions can be analyzed.The research shows that the total carbon emission grows at an average rate of 5.8％ each year while the carbon emission intensity decreases an average rate of 5.8％ per year; coal is main source of carbon emissions while its percentage is declining gradually ; carbon dioxide emission in industrial field is the largest part of the total carbon emission,but it is recording slow -down growth.Both the carbon dioxide emission and the proportion in transportation,service industry and household are increasing years by years.Furthermore,economic growth is the decisive factor to drive the Dongguan＇s per capita carbon emissions growth,and its cumulative effect is much higher than the carbon reduction effect by energy efficiency and the energy structure.