重型病毒性肝炎预后影响因素的逐步判别分析

Stepwise Discriminatory Analysis on Prognosis of Severe Virus Hepatitis

本文利用逐步判别分析方法,选出9项影响因素,建立判别方程。并用实际资料对该方程进行了回顾性及前瞻性验证,断别符合率分别为97.41％和91.67％,判别精度高,实际应用效果较好。本文还根据标准偏回归系数的大,对其影响因素排序,并进行了相对危险度的分析,认为随着并发症的加重,死亡的危险逐渐增加。对于判别方程的应用,认为不仅局限于对疾病预后的判断,还可以通过对单一病人的定期检查计算,动态观察病势的发展变化及转归过程,为定量分析重型肝炎患者的预后提供科学依据。

By appalying stepwise discriminatory analysis, 9 affecting factors were selected and discriminato- ry equation was established. The actual data were used to verify the equation in retrospect and pros- pect method. The discriminatory coincidence rates were 97.41% and 91.67% respectively. Discrimina- tory precision is high and the actual using result is nice, According to standard partial regression coefficients, affective factors were ranked and rel- ative risks was analysed, It was regarded that the risk of death with agravation of complication was high, The discriminatory equation was used not only in discriminating prognosis of severe virus hepatitis but also in observing change and progno- sis of the disease by regular calculating. This pro- vided scientific information for quantitative analy- sis of prognosis of severe virus hepatitis.