辽西地区松毛虫发生期气象预报方法

Weather Forecasting Methods for Pine Caterpillar Occurrence Period in Western Liaoning

为了研究松毛虫的生活习性与环境的关系,更有效地对松毛虫灾害进行预测和防治,利用气象因子与松毛虫发生期的关系,采用期距法、多元回归分析法对松毛虫各发生始见期进行预报。结果表明:利用期距法研究单个气象要素与松毛虫发生期的关系,幼虫上树到羽化始见期温度是影响松毛虫发生的主要因素,而降水是造成松毛虫下树的主要原因,利用期距法预报各虫态发生始见期偏差6天以内的比例为72.5%;利用多元回归分析法研究多个气象要素与松毛虫发生期的关系,幼虫上树到羽化始见期与日照时数、日较差关系更为密切,下树始见期的出现与温度和降水有关,利用多元回归分析法预报各虫态始见期偏差6天以内的比例为67.5%。

In order to study the relationship between the life habit of pine caterpillar and environment, forecast and control pine caterpillars disasters more effectively, the author used the relationship between the meteorological factors and occurrence period of pine caterpillar, to forecast the beginning stage of pine caterpillar with stage distance method and multivariate regression analysis method. The results showed that： by studying the relationship between a single meteorological element and occurrence period of pine caterpillar, temperature was the main factor affecting the occurrence of pine caterpillar in the larvae on the tree to eclosion beginning period and rainfall was the main factor affecting it in the larvae climbing down the tree. By using stage distance method, forecasting the occurrence period of pine caterpillar within 6 days of deviation ratio was 72.5%. According to the relationship between meteorological elements and occurrence period of pine caterpillar, sunshine hours and daily range were the main factors affecting the occurrence of pine caterpillar in the larvae on the tree to eclosion beginning period, temperature and rainfall were the main factors affecting it in the larvae climbing down the tree, and by using multivariate regression analysis method, forecasting the occurrence period of pine caterpillar within 6 days of deviation ratio was 67.5%.