新疆农八师垦区热量资源变化对农业的影响

Effect of Heat Resources Changes on Agriculture in the Reclamation Area of Xinjiang Eighth Agricultural Division

为掌握新疆农八师垦区气温和热量资源变化规律,利用1955—2012年气候资料,采用气候倾向率、标准偏差及信噪比等气候统计诊断技术,研究热量资源变化特征。结果表明:年平均气温、≥0℃积温、≥10℃积温升高趋势明显,气候倾向率分别为0.364℃/10 a、89.981℃·d/10 a和111.23℃·d/10 a。年平均气温在1989年突变性升高,突变前后平均升高1.2℃;≥0℃积温在1989年突变性增加,突变后增加254℃·d;≥10℃积温在1994年突变性增加,突变后增加377℃·d。新疆农八师垦区20世纪90年代初气候明显变暖,热量资源增加,对于农业来说利弊共存,应扬长避短,趋利避害是开发利用热量资源首要准则。本研究结果可为当地农业建设、作物调整提供农业气候资源依据。

In order to learn through the rules of temperature and heat resources changes in the reclamation area of Xinjiang Eighth Agricultural Division, the author learn about the characteristics of heat resources changes with meteorology data from 1955 to 2012 by using the climatological statistical and diagnostic techniques of climate tendency rate, standard deviation and signal to noise ratio. The results showed that：annual average temperature, accumulated temperature of temperatures greater than or equal to 0℃ and accumulated temperature of temperatures greater than or equal to 10℃ had an obvious increasing trend, withthe climate tendency rate of 0.364℃/10 a, 89.981℃·d/10 a and 111.23℃·d/10 a. Annual average temperature experienced a mutational increase in 1989, with an increase of 1.2℃ after the mutation; accumulated temperature of temperatures greater than or equal to 0℃ experienced a mutational increase in 1989, with anincrease of 254℃·d/a after the mutation; accumulated temperature of temperatures greater than or equal to10℃ experienced a mutational increase in 1994, with an increase of 377℃·d after the mutation. There existedan obvious climate warming in 1990 s in the reclamation area of Xinjiang Eighth Agricultural Division and anincrease of heat resources there. These had both positive and negative effects on agriculture. People should exploit heat resources under the first principle of seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages and this research offered basis of agricultural climate resources for local agriculture development and adjustment of local crop cultivation.