安徽省太阳总辐射参数化模型的适用性研究

Research on Applicability of Solar Radiation Parametric Model in Anhui Province

为了获得适用于安徽省的最优太阳辐射参数化估算模型,利用安徽省及其周边10个辐射台站1961—2012年长时间序列的太阳辐射资料和日照时数资料,对比分析多种太阳辐射估算模型在安徽省的计算精度。结果表明:基于安徽及其周边地区辐射实测资料修正的太阳辐射模型相较于其他6种参数化方法,误差最小,估算效果最好,在安徽最为适用。合肥站和屯溪站基于安徽修正模型的逐月平均太阳辐射估计值与对应时段的实测平均值吻合程度较好,2站的平均绝对相对误差分别不超过2.0%和3.5%,精度较高。研究结果为安徽省开展太阳能资源评估提供了科学基础。

In order to obtain the most appropriate parametric model for estimating solar radiation in Anhui Province, based on the observational solar radiation and sunshine hours of 10 radiation stations in Anhui Province and its surrounding regions from 1961 to 2012, the accuracy of 7 solar radiation models were compared and analyzed. Results showed that： the model which was modified based on the observational data of Anhui Province and its surrounding regions was more accurate than the other models and was most applicable for Anhui Province. The estimated monthly average solar radiation based on the modified model of Hefei station and Tunxi station was mostly consistent with the measured values. The mean absolute relative error fo rthe two stations was less than 2.0% and 3.5% respectively. This study provided a scientific basis for carrying out the solar energy resource assessment.