陇东塬区冬小麦生长量对气候变化的响应

Response of Winter Wheat Growth Rate to Climate Change in East of Gansu

为了研究气候变化对冬小麦的影响,利用陇东塬区1995—2013年连续19年冬小麦生长量资料及气候因子资料,采用气候倾向率、相关分析等方法,分析气候变化与冬小麦生长量的生理因果关系。结果表明,19年来冬小麦生育期内日平均气温上升,气候倾向率为0.552℃/10 a;有效积温增加,气候倾向率为126.1℃/10 a;降水总量上升,气候倾向率为7.619 mm/10 a;日照时数减少,气候倾向率为-42.256 h/10 a。19年来,陇东塬区冬小麦植物干重、生长率、叶面积、千粒重及气候产量均增加。各气候要素对生长量的影响在各发育期不同,营养生长期降水对冬小麦的生长起决定作用,随着生长发育进程,降水的影响逐渐减弱,积温、日照时数的影响逐渐增强,小麦气候产量与生育期内平均气温呈负相关,与降水量、有效积温和日照时数呈正相关。

In order to study the impact of climate change on winter wheat, by using the wheat growth data and climate data for 19 years in east of Gansu from 1995 to 2013, the physical causation of climate change on winter wheat growth was analyzed with the method of climate inclination rate and correlation analysis. The results showed that： （1）The average temperature in growth period of winter wheat kept rising in 19 years, the climate inclination rate was 0,552℃/10 a. When the effective accumulated temperature increased, the climate inclination rate was 126.1℃/10 a. When the total precipitation increased, the climate inclination rate was 7.619 mndl0 a. When sunshine duration reduced, the climate inclination rate was-42.256/10 a. （2）The dry weigh, growth rate, leaf area, thousand seed weight and climatic yield of winter wheat were increased in 19 years in east of Gansu. （3） Influence of each climate factor on growth of winter wheat was different in each the influence of accumulated temperature and sunshine duration gradually increased. （4）Climatic yield of winter wheat was negatively related to average temperature in the period of duration, but positively related to the precipitation, effective accumulated temperature and sunshine duration.