新型农村社会养老保险的减贫增收效应——基于“中国健康与营养追踪调查”的实证检验

Decreasing Poverty and Increasing Income Effect of New Rural Social Endowment Insurance——Based on the Empirical Test of“China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study”

以系统的理论分析为基础,利用2011年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)的全国调查数据,采用多元回归、离散选择模型以及工具变量法等多种计量模型实证检验新农保的政策效果,研究结果表明:新农保在全国范围内显著降低了农村居民贫困发生的概率,提高了农村居民的收入水平,增强了农民的经济保障能力。进一步地,对不同年龄群体分组检验的结果表明,作为主要目标群体的农村老年人受政策影响更为显著;但是处于缴费阶段的农民并不会因为参保致贫,某种程度上甚至有减贫效果。

Based on systematic theory, along with the investigation data of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study （2011）, and measurement models of multiple regression, disperse choice pattern, and instrumental quantity method to empirically test the policy effect of new rural insurance, the study shows： new rural insurance decreases the probability of poverty in rural area, increases the income and strengthens the economic guarantee capability of the farmers nation wide. Furthermore, study of different age group shows that as the main body of the target group, senior farmers are influenced most by the policy; but as farmers who submit to the insurance, the poverty issue is reduced even in a sense.