云南184年人间鼠疫历史的分段

Clustering the epidemic states of 184-year history of human plague in Yunnan province

目的对中国云南184年人间鼠疫历史进行分段。方法采用最优分割法,以计算机技术为核心的信息技术的高速发展,使得数理逻辑方法在历史学中运用变成了可能,使历史定量分析方法从统计与对比的初级阶段上升到大数据和大尺度的综合建模分析以发现历史规律的更深层面上。结果将中国云南184年历史人间鼠疫分为九段,从而提高历史研究对历史现象、经验、规律的总结和指导人们理解和解决当代问题,并正确地预测和把握未来。有组织的、有序的和科学的减灾、防灾行为显得至关重要。结论云南历史上的人间鼠疫表现出强烈的随机性和动态的连续性。它不仅考量了人文社会的稳定性和价值取向,更重要的是推动了人文社会的文明与进步。

Objective To cluster the epidemic states of the 184-year history of human plague in Yunnan prov-ince,China.Methods Fisher’s clustering method was adopted.The rapid development of computer technology and mathematical logics made it possible to quantitatively analyze large-scale of data,thereby enhancing the histori-cal study of the historical phenomena and experiences,summarizing the natural laws and guiding people to under-stand and solve contemporary problems.Results The 184-year history of human plague was divided into 9 epidemic states.Besides,organized,orderly and scientific measures to control and prevent epidemics are crucial.Conclusions The history of human plague in Yunnan Province showed a strong randomness and dynamic continuity.which not only demonstrate the stability and value orientation of the humanities,but also promote the progress of human civili-zation.