进口贸易结构对中国工业结构升级的影响研究

The Influence of Import Trade Structure on the Industrial Structure Upgrading in China

按BEC分类法将进口商品分为资本品、中间品和消费品,并考察了资本品、中间品及消费品对中国工业结构升级的影响。结果显示,相对于资本品,中间品进口对中国工业结构升级的贡献更加明显,而消费品进口会在一定程度上阻碍工业结构的升级;进口贸易结构与工业结构升级之间不存在双向因果关系,进口贸易结构改善与工业结构升级之间的良性循环尚未形成。最后,在研究结果基础上进行合理的解释,并给出相应的建议和措施。

According to the BEC classification, this paper divides the imported goods into capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer goods, and studies the influence of the three kinds of imported goods on upgrading the industrial structure in China. Results show that, compared with capital goods, the contribution of intermediate goods to upgrading the industrial structure is more obvious, and consumer products would hinder the process of industrial structure to and the import trade some extent. There is no two-way causal relationship between the industrial structure structure. Therefore, industrial structure upgrading upgrading has not improved China import trade structure from the overall, and the virtuous cycle has not established between the import trade structure improvement and industrial structure upgrading. Further, it gives a reasonable explanation and some suggestions on the basis of the study.