货币政策对房地产市场影响的地区差异分析

Analysis on Regional Disparity of Monetary Policy on the Real Estate Market

基于货币政策对中国房地产市场的调控效果存在地区间的现实差异,文章采用2006—2013年的月度数据,在讨论价格型与数量型货币政策的基础上,利用向量自回归(VAR)模型和脉冲响应函数,对中国东、中、西部区域层面的货币政策传导效果进行比较分析。研究结果表明:数量型货币政策对东部地区房地产市场的调控效果较其他两个地区更加明显,但长期数量型货币政策会导致房价上升。价格型货币政策对三个地区的影响趋势相近,并且价格型政策对各地区房地产市场的调控效果比数量型政策更有效。所以中国应差别对待各地区的政策调控,不可"一刀切"。

ISased on the currently regional disparity of the impact of monetary policy on the real estate market regulation, using the monthly data from 2006--2012, the paper divides monetary policy instruments into price type tools and quantitative tools. By employing the measurement analysis method of VAR and impulse response function, the paper compares the effects of monetary policy transmission in the eastern, central and western China. The results show that eastern region suffers the greatest impact from the quantitative monetary policy, but quantitative monetary policy will arise the price in long term. At the same time, price type policy has close effect in three regions, and price type policy in three regions is more effective than quantitative policy. As a result, China should discriminate monetary policy according to regional differences.