FDI对农村剩余劳动力转移存在门槛效应吗

Is There Threshold Effect of FDI on Transference of Redundant Rural Labor Force?

理论机制分析发现,在中国这样具有明显大国转型特征的经济体中,FDI通过支付工资溢价和提供更多就业机会等渠道对农村剩余劳动力转移产生至关重要的影响。同时,本文借鉴以门槛回归技术为代表的非线性计量经济学理论,采用中国1998-2011年的省际面板数据构建"门槛效应"面板模型,对FDI影响农村剩余劳动力转移的门槛效应进行实证研究。研究结论表明,FDI对农村剩余劳动力转移的影响显著存在于实际外商直接投资存量和城乡实际收入差距的"双门槛效应",FDI与农村剩余劳动力转移之间存在显著的非线性关系。而且,随着门槛值的不断增加,FDI对农村剩余劳动力转移的正向影响效应均呈现逐渐递减的趋势。

Theoretical analysis finds that, FDI has critical impact on the transference of redundant rural labor force via paying wage premium and providing more employment opportunity in China which owns characteristics of transition economy. Meanwhile, based on the nonlinear econometric theory represented by threshold regression, this paper conducts ＂threshold effect＂ panel model to analyze threshold effect of FDI on the transference of redundant rural labor force by using provincial panel data from 1998 to 2011. The results show that, the effect of FDI on the transference of redundant rural labor force lies in the ＂double threshold effect＂ of actual FDI stock and actual urban-rural income gap, and there is positive nonlinear relationship between FDI and the transference of redundant rural labor force. As the threshold value increases, the positive effect of FDI ~n the transference of redundant rural labor force gets weaker.