中国农村贫困脆弱性动态演化分析

Analysis on the Vulnerability to Poverty Dynamics in Chinese Rual Households

利用1993～2009年CHNS的6轮农村家庭收入调查数据,计算中国农村家庭的贫困脆弱性,并采用统计分析和转移矩阵的方法,分析中国农村家庭贫困脆弱的整体变动趋势及其动态演化特征。研究发现：中国农村家庭整体脆弱程度呈不断下降趋势;贫困脆弱状态是一种暂时性贫困脆弱状态,并且脱离贫困脆弱与进入贫困脆弱现象并存;脱离贫困脆弱和进入贫困脆弱均呈现状态依赖性,在脆弱线附近群体更容易进入和脱离贫困脆弱;贫困脆弱群体的不同阶层脱离贫困脆弱后,大部分家庭进入非贫困脆弱群体的阶层有所差别,非贫困脆群体的不同阶层进入贫困脆弱后,大部分家庭均进入贫困脆弱群体的较低阶层;同时,分析了中国农村家庭贫困脆弱性动态演化作用机制。

Based on the household panel of CHNS in 1993～2009,we calculate vulnerability to poverty of Chinese rural households and analyze dynamics of poverty in China rural using statistic analysis and transition matrix.We conclude that：there is a downward trend for vulnerable degree of Chinese rural households;The vulnerable state of Chinese rural households is temporary and Out of poverty vulnerability is accompany with entering of poverty vulnerability;Chinese rural Households which is out of poverty vulnerability show a state-dependence,entering of poverty Vulnerability too,which are more easily into and out of poverty near the vulnerable line;After different vulnerability to poverty class is out of poverty vulnerability,Most families which enter class of poverty vulnerability groups is different.After different non-vulnerability to poverty class enter poverty vulnerability,Most households enter lower class of poverty vulnerable groups.Meanwhile,we analysis mechanism of vulnerability to poverty dynamic from China＇s rural households.