我国人均收入与服务业发展互动研究

The Dynamic Interaction Relationship between Per Capita Income and Service Industry Development

本文基于VAR模型,我国使用1978-2011年期间相关数据,对人均收入与服务业发展之间的动态互动关系进行了实证分析。结果显示:我国人均收入与服务业发展存在滞后效应,人均收入在短期内的增长不但没有拉动服务业比重的增加,反而引致服务业比重下降;服务业比重短期的增加没有引起人均收入的立即增长,但二者从长期来看存在正向的互动关系,人均收入与服务业发展的滞后效应是导致我国人均收入与服务业发展之间弱对应关系的重要原因。因此,应突破二者动态互动的瓶颈,消除导致人均收入与服务业发展相互影响滞后的阻碍因素,促使二者良性互动关系健康发展。

The article uses VAR model to empirically analyze the dynamic interaction relationship between per capita income and service industry development by using relevant data in China during 1978-2011 .It finds that there exists lag effect in the interaction relationship between per capita income and the service industry development , the increase of per capita income in the short term does not pull the increase of the proportion of service industry , on the contrary it leads to the fall of the proportion of service industry;the rising of service industry proportion in short -term does not immediately cause the growth of per capita income , but in the long run , there exists positive interaction relationship between them;the lag effect in the interactive relationship is the important reason that leads to the weak corresponding relationship between service industry development and per capita income .Therefore , the article suggests that we should eliminate the obstacles that cause the lag effect in order to break through the bottleneck in the dynamic interaction relationship between per capita income and service industry development , and encourage the establishment of the benign interaction relationship.