金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

The Relationship Between Interest Rate Liberalization and Economic Growth Under Financial Friction in China

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。

At present, China is facing a complicated situation that economic slowdown, liquidity tightening, high interest rates, how to promote the reform of the financial system for promoting economic growth and maintaining financial stability is an important issue. Based on the capital economic growth model containing the financial friction factor, the paper constructs the interest rate-economic growth model and empirically examine the model. The results show that interest rate has a significant effect on savings and investment, with the advance of the interest rate liberalization, the impact is increasing. In addition, there as a negative correlation between interest rate and economic growth, it＇s policy implication is that current high real interest rates is harmful to economic growth. The paper argues that we should push the reform of lift the cap on the deposit rate prudently and promote the interest rate transmission mechanism.