全球化下的经济赶超路径探索——基于D-S框架

The Exploration of Economic Catch-up Path ——Based on D-S Framework

本文通过构建具有产品差异性、厂商垄断性和规模报酬递增的两国模型,运用修正的D-S分析框架,证明了在全球化下一国经济赶超可分为两步:初期建立与要素禀赋相符的产业结构;当要素禀赋与产业结构发生背离时进入加速期,此时应确保技术进步与要素禀赋变动同步,进行产业升级。基于韩国数据,本文实证研究发现固定产业结构对经济赶超有倒U型影响,证实了上述结论。其后依据全球化下技术进步的不同方式,给出了赶超国在加速期面临的三种不同赶超路径,认为我国当前可以选择"吸收主动技术溢出—吸收被动技术溢出—自主研发"的赶超路径。

This paper constructs a two-country model with product differentiation, manufacturers monopoly and increasing returns to scale. Then it comes to a hypothesis of two-step complex economic catch-up, based on D-S framework. First step, the country do catch-up with establishing the industrial structure matching endowment. Second step, the country should ensure technological progress synchronizes with endowments＇ change. With Korea data, we confirm this conclusion, and find a fixed industrial structure has had an inverted U-impact to economic growth. Thereafter, this paper divides the three industrial catch-up ways based on the different types of technical progress, and suggestes a feasible path for Chinese economic development.