基于GM(1,1)模型的区域交通运输体系发展预测

Study on forecast of the regional transportation system based on the GM(1,1) model

灰色预测法是一种对含有不确定因素的灰色系统所产生的与时间有关的灰色变化过程进行预测的方法。本文以灰色预测法中的GM(1,1)模型为基础,以残差模型对其进行优化,并将优化后的模型应用于以陕西省为实例的区域交通运输体系的发展预测。实证结果表明,预测结果良好。

Grey forecasting method is a method that predicts on the grey change process related time in grey system containing uncertain factors.The paper took GM（1,1）model as basement and optimized it by residual error model,as well as used optimized model to made development prediction on the regional integrated transportation system,which took the Shaanxi province as example.The empirical result showed the predication results was fine.