2013年H7N9型禽流感疫情的数学分析

Mathematical analysis of the H7N9 avian influenza appeared in 2013

以2013年中华人民共和国国家卫生和计划生育委员会公布的中国大陆春季H7N9禽流感疫情的实际数据为例,根据3月31日至5月10日的累计发病人数,首先利用Logistic增长模型,以SPSS软件拟合,并用Matlab软件绘出拟合曲线,发现其与原始数据基本吻合;然后考虑潜伏期温度的影响,对经典的Logistic增长模型进行改进,再进行数学分析和模拟.结果表明:数值结果与实际数据有很好的一致性,禽流感病毒最活跃时的最适温度为15.0℃.

This paper is concerned with the data of H7N9 avian influenza epidemic occurred in the spring of 2013 in China's Mainland, which was issued by National Health and Familay Planning Commission of the People＇s Republic of China. Based on the infectious cases from March 31 to May 10, Logistic growth model is used to the model, fitting by SPSS and simulating by Matlab show that the curve agrees with the original data. Considering the effect of the temprature in the latent period, the classical Logistic growth model is improved to do mathematical analysis and simulation. Numerical results show very good consistence with the original data and the best-fit temprature of the avi- an influenza is 15.0 ℃.