从NAFTA到TPP(上)——纪念北美自由贸易协定签订20周年

From NAFTA to TPP( A)——Commemoration of Signing the NAFTA for 20 Years

1993年12月,克林顿总统正式签署了北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)的实施法案。由于贸易和投资会受到各种经济变量的影响,因此,目前要对20年来北美自由贸易协定的影响做一整体评估还有难度,但有一点是可以肯定的,即北美自由贸易协定有力地推动了北美地区和整个世界的贸易自由化进程。北美自由贸易协定是最全面的自由贸易协定,提出了一些具有历史意义的条款,成为美国新一代自由贸易协定的模板或范例,并且为乌拉圭回合的多边贸易谈判提供了理论和经验基础。在美国与其他11个国家(包括加拿大和墨西哥)关于跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)的谈判中,与北美自由贸易协定相关的政策问题仍是美国政府关注的焦点。到目前为止,反对者所担心的情况没有发生,支持者所预言的巨大的经济利益也没有出现,北美自由贸易协议对美国经济的实际影响似乎并不太大。一方面是因为美国与加拿大和墨西哥的进出口贸易占美国国内生产总值的比重较小;另一方面是因为当这三个国家真正实行了更加开放的贸易和投资时,三国之间的企业也随之产生了成本调节机制。

In December of 1993,President Clinton formally signed up the implementation deal of NATFA. As the trade and investment are influenced by all kinds of economic variants, it is hard to make an overall evaluation of the NATFA over the 20 years. However,one thing is for sure that the NATFA has greatly promoted the trade liberalization of the North America and the whole world. The NATFA is the most comprehensive free trade agreement. It proposes some clauses of historic significance, becomes the model or example of US’s new free trade agreement and provides theoretical and empirical basis for the Uruguay Round of Multi-lateral Trade Talks. In the talks about TPP between US and other 11 countries （including Canada and Mexico）,the policy issues related with NAFTA was still the focus of the US government. Up to now,as 20 years passed by,what the opponents worried about has never occurred,while the huge economic interest predicted by the supporters hasn’t occurred either. The real impact of NAFTA on US’s economy seems to be small. On the one hand, the import and export trade among US,Canada and Mexico accounts for a rather small part of US’s GDP. On the other hand,as the three countries truly open their trade and investment,the enterpris-es among the three countries correspondingly come up with their cost adjustment mechanism.