基于模糊贝叶斯网络的山区高速铁路桥梁运营风险评估

Operation Risk Assessment of High-speed Railway Bridges in Mountainous Area Based on Fuzzy Bayesian

针对山区高速铁路桥梁风险情况复杂且影响巨大的特点,提出基于模糊贝叶斯网络,建立山区高速铁路桥梁运营风险评估模型。将山区高速铁路桥梁风险损失划分成3类,分别列出各类损失的风险因素,构建桥梁运营风险概率评估的贝叶斯网络,通过专家调查法统计出桥梁风险因素的概率等级分布,并根据链式传递规则计算出风险事故的概率等级分布。然后,结合风险矩阵对桥梁运营风险水平进行评估。最后,利用该方法分析贵广高速铁路上云阳双线特大桥的运营风险。结果表明,建立的模型计算过程简便,评价结果符合实际,具有较高的实用性。

In this paper, a fuzzy Bayesian network is applied to assess the operational risk of high-speed railway bridges in mountainous area. Firstly, the risk losses are classified into three categories, and the risk factors are listed for each loss. Secondly, the Bayesian network is used to estimat the risk probability based on expert research and chain transmission rule. Then, the risk matrix is applied to assess risk level. Finally, the operational risk of Yunyang extra-long double line bridge located on Guizhou-Guangxi high-speed railway is assessed based on the above method. The research results show that the model is simple, reliable and high in applicability to assess operational risk of high-speed railway bridges.