自贡市土地综合承载力分析

Analysis on the Integrated Land Carrying Capacity in Zigong City

收集自贡市2006-2011年的相关生产数据,从社会承载力、生态承载力经济承载力三方面构建出了自贡市土地综合承载力的评价指标体系,运用均方差法层次分析法和多指标综合评价法,对自贡市土地综合承载力得分进行了纵向比较.结果表明：①均方差法：自贡市土地综合承载力逐年增加,2006年为0.1127分,2011年增加至0.9810分,社会承载力、生态承载力及经济承载力呈现逐年增加的趋势;②层次分析法：自贡市土地综合承载力逐年增加,2006年为0.1651分,2011年增加至0.8279分,社会承载力、生态承载力及经济承载力呈现逐年增加的趋势;③综合评价法：自贡市土地综合承载力逐年提高,社会承载力和经济承载力的贡献较大,而对于生态环境的破坏则对自贡市总体的发展起了阻碍作用.因此,要提高自贡市土地综合承载力必须从适度人口、适合自贡市发展的经济方式、合理利用土地等方面进行改进.

The related agricultural production data from 2006 to 2011 in Zigong City was collected to build the evaluation index system of integrated land carrying capacity based on the social carrying capacity,ecological carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity.Using the mean variance method,analytic hierarchy process method,multi index comprehensive evaluation method,the longitudinal score of integrated land carrying capacity in Zigong City was compared.The results show that：（1） the mean variance method：the integrated land carrying capacity of Zigong City increases year by year,the score in 2006 is 0.1127 and in2011 it increases to 0.9810,the social carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity and the ecological environment show an increasing trend;（2） the analytic hierarchy process turned the same,the score in 2006 is 0.1651 and in 2011 it increased to0.8279;（3） the comprehensive evaluation method：the integrated land carrying capacity of Zigong City increases every year,the social carrying capacity and economic carrying capacity contribute more,but the destruction of the ecological environment plays the hindrance role on the development of Zigong City.Therefore,the appropriate population,the appropriate economic mode and the rational use of land would be advantageous to improving the integrated land carrying capacity of Zigong City.