基于AHP-模糊综合评价法的农地抵押贷款风险评价研究

Research on Farmland Mortgage Loan Risk Evaluation Based on AHP-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

针对当前我国农村土地承包经营权抵押融资难、农民贷款难、金融机构"惜贷"等问题,以安徽省某地区为实证研究对象,运用AHP-模糊综合评价法进行风险评价。从农地抵押贷款的自然风险、市场风险、金融风险、政策风险四个方面,构建农地抵押贷款风险评价指标体系,探索开展农地抵押贷款业务的风险大小。通过指标权重的计算,发现金融风险占比最大,市场风险占比较大,政策风险占比较小,自然风险占比最小。为防控农地抵押贷款风险,提出完善农业保险制度、健全农地估价体系、建立风险管控机制、加大政策扶持力度的建议。

In terms of the problems about farmlands contractual management rights, which include difficulties in mort- gage finance, farmers＇ loans, financing institutions＇ credit rationing, The AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted to carry on the research on these problems in certain area of Anhui Province. From the aspects of natural risk, market risk, financial risk and policy risk, the mortgage risk evaluation indicator system for farmlands is established to explore the mortgage risk of farmlands. The result of calculating the index weight shows that the financial risk is the biggest, the market risk is the second, the policy risk is the third, and the natural risk account for the least. In order to control the risk of farmlands＇ mortgage risk, proposals are put forward to improve agricultural insurance system and farmlands evaluation system, establish risk managing and controlling mechanism, and strengthen the degree of policy support.