邯郸市中心商业区停车需求预测研究

Forecast of the demand of parking place in CBD of Handan

从分析停车需求影响因素入手,引入土地开发强度、小汽车出行比例的增长率、以及高峰时间泊位周转率、泊位利用率等参数改进停车生成率模型,对邯郸市中心商业区的停车需求现状进行评价并对2020年的停车需求进行预测和分析。结果表明:邯郸市中心商业区的现状停车供给严重不足,2020年时仍将需要大量的土地资源建设停车设施,将给中心商业区的道路交通带来极大的压力。因此,需要从供应和需求两个源头出发,综合采取停车控制策略,降低由于过大的停车需求所带来的负面影响。

Based on the analysis of the factors involved in the demand of parking place, the parame- ters were introduced to improve the parking generation rate model, including the land development in- tensity, the growth rate of trip proportion by car, the turnover rate and utilization ratio of the berth during the rush hour. Accordingly, the demand of parking place in CBD of Handan was evaluated and the demand in 2020 was also forecasted. The results show that the current supply of parking placesustains a serious shortage and still need lots of land resources to build parking facilities, which exert huge pressure on the traffic in CBD of Handan. Therefore the multiple control strategies should be used from supply and demand to reduce the negative effects of the redundant demand of parkingplaces.