交通环境对道路安全影响的未确知测度评价

Evaluation of Influence of Traffic Environment on Road Safety Based on Uncertainty Measure Theory

道路交通安全事故的发生与交通环境有密不可分的关系。引入未确知测度数学理论模型,将道路安全分为4个等级,建立天气状况、路面状况、地形状况等交通环境因素的评价指标体系,分析给定了分级标准,构建了道路安全状况评价指标的未确知测度函数,用信息熵法求取指标权重,依据置信度识别准则对道路安全状况进行识别,得到了一定交通环境下的道路交通安全等级,并结合实例进行了分析。研究结果表明,该方法能有效解决道路安全等级评价中诸多不确定性问题,操作性强,结果可靠。

Road traffic safety accidents are closely linked with traffic environment. Based on uncertainty measure theory,the road safety condition was divided into four grades,and the evaluation index system was established,which includes climate condition,pavement condition and landform condition; meanwhile,the grading standards were given. Uncertainty measure functions of evaluation index are obtained using the uncertainty measure theory,information entropy method is used to calculate weights of the evaluation indices. Credible degree recognition criteria are used to evaluate road safety level. Finally,the analysis is made with example. The results show that this evaluation method has solved the uncertainty factor problems of road safety grade evaluation; the analysis result proves the method operable and its result credible.