沥青路面使用性能预测

Performance Prediction Model for Asphalt Pavement

路面使用性能预测模型由路面损坏状况预测、行驶质量预测和结构强度预测三个部分组成,它是路面管理系统的重要组成部分。本文在整理和分析北京市公路网两年路况调查数据的基础上提出了适用于北京市公路或类似条件的网级路面使用性能概率预测模型,同时也闸述了应用马尔可夫过程的建模方法。

As absolutely essential part of the pavement management system, the modelling of pavement performance is proposed to be represented by a combination pavement distress prediction,riding quality prediction and stru- ctural capacity prediction.For Beijing highways,these models in probabili stic nature are developed by using regression analysis and Markov transition matrix.