四川盆地高温热浪时空特征及预报模型研究

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction Model of Heat Waves in Sichuan Basin

利用四川1960-2009年逐日最高气温、欧洲中心ERA Interim1.5°＊1.5°再分析资料和ECWMF2.5°＊2.5°模式预报场资料,分析四川盆地高温热浪的时空分布特征,归纳出四川盆地高温热浪天气预报模型。结果表明：四川盆地高温热浪天气有三个异常区;区域性高温热浪过程期间100hPa南压高压明显东进,我国至俄罗斯南部地区显著增高;500hPa有青藏高压型、副高型和带状高压型三种环流型。四川盆地高温热浪天气的预报模型为：1）500hPa四川盆地上空为青藏高压或副高或带状高压控制,位势高度达584位势什米以上,其中青藏高压和西太副高需达588位势什米;2）四川盆地上空850hPa上未来三天都为大于24℃的闭合等温线控制。

Based on the data of daily maximum temperature during 1960 - 2009 that recorded by the 96 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin,the reanalysis data of ECWMF and the data of ECWMF Numerical Prediction Models,temporal and spatial features were studied in detail and the numerical prediction model forecast were concluded which based on 25 heat waves during 1979- 2009. The results show that,the heat waves appears mainly from July to August; REOF show that the heat waves in Sichuan Basin have three anomalous area（Western part,Eastern part and Middle part）. At the 100 hPa the south asia high is located farther east,meanwhile Mongolia,most of China and south of Russia were controlled by positive anomalies; there are three circulation patterns（Tibetan High,West Pacific Ocean Subtropical High and high- pressure belt） at the 500 hPa. The numerical prediction model forecast including follows： 1） at the 500 hPa Sichuan Basin control by Tibetan High or West Pacific Subtropical High or Zonal High,and geopotential height greater than 5840 m,meanwhile the Tibetan High and West Pacific Subtropical High must reached 5880 m,and Sichuan Basin have a anticyclone; 2） temper at the 850 hPa greater than 24℃ and sustainable 3 days.