WAFS网格点数据对拉萨航路颠簸的预报检验

Forecast Verification of the Aircraft Turbulence on Lhasa Route from WAFS Grids Data

结合2014年2月10日和11日拉萨航路的13例飞机颠簸航空器空中报告,检验了世界区域预报系统(WAFS)风场对高空急流的预报能力,并对新增下发的晴空颠簸网格点数据的预报效果和业务化应用进行分析。结果表明:WAFS风场资料具有较高的预报能力,最大晴空颠簸预报比平均晴空颠簸预报具有更高的辨识能力,可选择4为阈值的最大晴空颠簸网格点数据绘制拉萨航路颠簸预报区域图,在业务应用中验证修订使用。

Air Turbulence is an important event on Lhasa route which impacts flight security. According to the 13 cases of turbulence on the Lhasa route reported between 10 to 11 thFebruary,2014. Inspecting the wind field＇s forecast capability for upper jet stream from the World Area Forecast System（ WAFS） data. Analysis the forecast effect and application of the newly clear air turbulence（CAT） grids data. The result manifests that： wind data from WAFS has higher forecast ability for clear air turbulence. It is better for the maximum CAT forecasting than the mean CAT,We can choose a number ＂4＂ as a threshold to draw turbulence forecast area on the Lhasa route,and amendment for using in applications.