基于模糊综合的CCS项目风险评价研究

On the risk evaluation of CCS project based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach

CO2捕集和储存(Carbon Capture and Storage,CCS)技术可从根本上解决大型排碳企业的碳排放问题。为了能很好地评判CCS项目实施的可行性及能否为企业带来收益,排碳企业有必要对CCS项目的投资进行风险评估。由于我国目前尚无统一、成熟和完善的CCS项目风险评价决策机制,特构建了CCS项目风险的评价指标体系,将模糊综合评价法应用到CCS项目风险评价中。在综合评判中采用层次分析法计算评价指标的权重,并对模糊评价中常用的最大最小算法进行改进,提出了加权平均模糊合成综合评价的方法,取得了较好的效果。通过算例分析得到的3个准则层评价等级为2个B级和1个C级,而目标层的综合评价等级为B级,这样不仅得到了最终评价结果,还在加权平均过程中更好地体现出是哪些因素导致的最终结果。研究表明,该评价方法可以应用到CCS项目风险评价中,并作为其投资的决策工具。

The paper takes it as its target to propose a risk evaluation of the carbon capture and storage （CCS） project based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation approach. As is known, the technology of CCS can be used to solve the problem of carbon emission, which most of the large carbon-involved enterprises have to be confronted with. Therefore, such enterprises have to work out most effective ways to solve the emission problem as an inherent part of their production and management. In order to realize the real-time risk evaluation and promote its solution, this article has come up with the risk evaluation in- dex system of CCS project and the corresponding fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. In order to present our method in a clear-cut manner, we would like to, first of all, introduce the linear membership function while presenting all the main factors to be included in. Then, it is necessary to introduce the evaluation matrix of criterion layers and determine the weight of each index in each criterion layer. And, finally, based on the weighted average method, all the synthetic evaluation results of criterion layers and target layer can be worked out in accordance with the evaluation matrix and the weight of each index. In our evaluation model, the evaluation grade of two criterion layers are B and the rest is C, while the comprehensive evaluation grade of target layer is B. The analysis results of the case sample can verify the validity of the proposed method. Depending on the risk evaluation index system and the evaluation method of CCS, we can not only obtain the final evaluation results, but also better show which factors may lead to the final results by the process of the weighted average. The research results have thus shown that the proposed evaluation model is reasonable and effective, for the results obtained are of relatively high accuracy and more realistic significance. All this may account for the highly available applicability of the proposed method when it is used for assessing the risks of CCS project as the decisionmaking tool of CCS project investment.