航运业的投资传奇——下一个万亿美元

Shipping's investment saga——the next trillion dollars

20世纪90年代,航运业刚刚从80年代的全球经济大萧条中走出来,显得脆弱不堪,船舶融资也非常困难.80年代爆发的全球金融危机让船舶融资银行受到了重创,而美国的银行危机也迫使一批本土银行破产倒闭.而在1988年银行业推出了“旧巴塞尔资本协定”（Basel 1）之后,银团贷款紧缺,资本市场信贷收紧,这使得获得超过2,500亿美元的贷款变得难上加难。

In the early 1990 s when shipping emerged in a fragile state from the traumas of the 1980 s, raising finance was a problem. The shipping banks had taken a battering in the 1980 s, and the US financialcrisis had taken out the American banks. 'Basel 1' made getting a loan over $25m difficult, syndications were rare and the capital markets were unapproachable. Against this background, estimates that the shipping industry would need to raise $200 billion to finance investment during the 1990 s seemed an impossible mountain to climb. In fact these estimates of future investment requirement, based on the need to replace the ageing fleet and allow for expansion of the key tanker, bulkcarrier and containership fleets, proved to be on the low side. During the decade investments in new ships added up to about $340 billion. And of course, miraculously, the money appeared. Syndications, club deals, capital market transactions, the German KG market and a few new banks filled the gap. Shipping needs the investment, but where will the money come from? Most analysts agree there's a tidal wave of cash sloshing around the world, looking for a home with a good story. Unfortunately shipping's financial story remains a bit patchy, but the reassuring lesson of the 1990 s is that there's always someone who will find a way to do the business. Who will it be this time? Well, that's the trillion dollar question.