航运事故致因机理突变模型的构造与应用

Construction and Application of Shipping Accident Cause Mechanism Catastrophe Theory Model

利用突变理论对航运事故发生机理进行定量研究。由于该研究是一项系统工程,涉及到控制变量的提取和量化、突变模型和固有特征量的构造以及最终分析等一系列复杂过程,因此基于现有学者在突变模型应用于航运事故发生机理方面的研究,对突变模型的构造和应用过程中存在的具体问题进行深入研究,设计从控制变量提取量化、突变模型构造及拓扑到最终机理分析的整套框架。在取得足够的事故样本后,可利用该框架进一步明确航运事故机理,最终实现事故风险预控。

The mechanism of marine accidents is quantitatively studied by the catastrophe theory. The research involves a series of complex processes, such as identification and quantification of control variables, the construction and analysis of the catastrophe theory model and its inherent characteristic value. Certain achievements of the research in mechanism of marine accidents with the catastrophe theory have been made. Some specific problems in construction and application of the catastrophe theory model are focused on the basis of those achievements. The whole framework of process is designed from extraction of control variables and quantification, construction of the catastrophe theory model and its topology to the final mechanism analysis. The framework allows determination of the mechanism of marine accidents, hence, control of the risks, provided that enough data are collected.