基于ARIMA模型的中国医院药品费用增长趋势分析

Predictive Analysis of China's Hospital Drug Expenditure Based on ARIMA Model

目的:对我国医院药品费用增长趋势进行分析和预测,为有关研究者与政策制定者提供参考。方法:采集1989年至2012年《卫生统计年鉴》中卫生部门综合医院院均药品费用数据,建立时间序列ARIMA模型进行分析。结果:我国卫生部门综合医院院均药品费用ARIMA模型的适合参数为(3,2,1),按照当前趋势,到2015年我国卫生部门综合医院院均药品费用将突破1.35亿元。结论:我国医院药品费用增长速度较快,时间序列分析方法可以应用于卫生统计数据的资料分析。

Objective： To analysis and forecasting the growth trend of hospital drug costs, and to provide a reference for researchers and policy makers.Methods： Data was collected from Health Statistics Yearbook of China, 1989 to 2012. The author then established a time series of ARIMA model for analysis.Results： The suitable parameters for this model is （3,2,1）. By using this model, the author found that, according to current trends, the average drug expenditure in China＇s public comprehensive hospital will exceed 135 million Yuan in 2015.Conclusion： The growth of hospital drug costs was quick in China. ARIMA Model could be used in health statistics.