影响中国投资的因素:市域空间相关的角度

Influencing Factor of Investment in China from Perspective of City Space

运用空间相关性检验的莫兰指数分析讨论了中国城市投资的空间分布特征,并进一步在市域水平对投资进行了空间计量分析。结果表明:1GDP、财政支出、金融资本、人力资本均与投资的正空间相关性显著,即某区域相邻区域这些变量的集聚可带动该区域投资增加。2对全国城市分析的结果发现,除了GDP、财政支出、金融资本以外,空间滞后模型的空间相关系数估计显著,说明空间相关性也是影响投资的重要因素,而人力资本对投资规模的影响不显著。3投资在东、中、西部城市的影响因素具有明显差异。影响投资的主要因素东部是GDP,中部是GDP、财政支出、金融资本,西部则是GDP、财政支出。

This paper discussed the spatial distribution features of the city- level investment in China by applying the Moran＇s I variable. Further, the spatial statistic empirical research on the city - level investment was conducted. The results were as follows： First, there were significantly positive correlations between investment and GDP, fiscal expenditure, finacial capital, human capital, that meant the increase of investment in a region would be drived by cumulation of these variables in the neighboring region. Second, the results of analyzing all cities in China showed that the scale of investment were affected by GDP, fiscal expenditure, finacial capital. In addition, the spatial correlation coefficient of SLM model was significant. It showed that spatial correlation was also an important factor. The impact of human capital on the scale of investment wasn＇t significant. Third, there were obvious differences in the influencing factor of investment in easten, central and western cities in China. In the east, the main influencing factors of investment was GDP. In the middle it was GDP, fiscal expenditure, financial capital. In the west it was GDP and fiscal expenditure.