SRES A2/B2情景下未来黑龙江省积温带格局的演变

Potential Variation of Accumulated Temperature Zone in Heilongjiang Province Under SRES A2 /B2 Scenarios

采用区域气候模式PRECIS,模拟SRES A2和B2情景下2021-2050年黑龙江省积温,利用GIS精细划分积温带,并对积温带的移动与变化进行分析.结果表明：PRECIS能较好地模拟黑龙江省生长季气温及积温的空间分布;2021-2050年黑龙江省大部地区≥10℃积温增加300～500℃·d,西部新增2900 ～3100℃·d积温带（定义为APP）,集中在松嫩平原南部;第一积温带大幅北移东扩达8个经度和2个以上纬度,第二积温带主带北移约1.5个纬度,APP、第一和第二积温带面积总和占黑龙江省总面积的50％以上,比基准时段（1961-1990年）增加约42个百分点,区域面积扩大4倍以上;第三积温带主带北移2个以上纬度,第四、五积温带在农区基本消失,第三、四、五、六积温带面积均显著收缩,面积总和占黑龙江省总面积的45％左右,区域缩小一半.研究结果对黑龙江省应对气候变化,调整农作物种植结构和品种熟性具有指导意义.

Accumulated temperature （∑T）was simulated under SRES A2/B2 scenarios from 2021 to 2050 in Heilongjiang province by using the regional climate model PRECIS.Based on GIS to finely divide the accumulated temperature zone （ATZ）,the movement and change of ATZ were studied.The results showed that PRECIS simulated fairly well temperature and spatial distribution characters of ∑T≥10℃ （above 10℃） during growing season in Heilongjiang province.There would be 300-500℃ · d increase for the most of Heilongjiang province from 2021 to 2050.A new ATZ with 2900-3100℃ · d（as APP）would be developed in the west,mainly located in South of the Songnen plain.The 1st ATZ would be drastically moved more than 2 latitudes toward north and 8 longitudes toward east,The 2nd ATZ moved 1.5 latitudes toward north.In addition,the total area of APP ATZ,The 1 st ATZ and The 2nd ATZ was more than 50 percents of total area of Heilongjiang province,which increased 42 percentage points than that of baseline period（1961-1990）.The 3rd ATZ would be moved more than 2 latitudes toward north.The 4th ATZ and the The 5th ATZ disappeared almost in growing areas.Their total area was 45 percent of total area of Heilongjiang province,and was half as much as baseline period.The results could provide reference to deal with climate change and adjust crop planting structure and maturing types of variety in Heilongjiang province.