黑龙江省积温时空变化及积温带的重新划分

Accumulated Temperature Variation and Accumulated Temperature Rezone in Heilongjiang Province

根据黑龙江省1981-2012年78个气象站点的逐日平均气温资料,运用5日滑动平均法计算≥10℃积温,并对其进行Kiring空间插值分析,研究气候变暖后黑龙江省≥10℃积温的时空变化,选取80%保证率计算黑龙江省各地区积温并对全省积温带进行重新划分。结果表明:(1)黑龙江省1981-2012年年平均气温为3.18℃,呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),气候倾向率为0.21℃/10a;(2)时间分布上,20世纪80年代以来,黑龙江省≥10℃积温呈增加趋势,线性拟合增长率为83.95℃·d/10a(P<0.05),1981-2012年积温均值为2645.39℃·d;(3)空间上,黑龙江省≥10℃积温年代际变化呈显著增加趋势,各积温带北移东扩现象显著;1981-2012年全省大部地区80%保证率下≥10℃积温高于2300℃·d,各积温带大致向北移、东扩了一个积温带。研究结果对黑龙江省农作物的种植区划具有指导作用。

Based on daily average temperature data from 78 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang province from 1981 to 2012,the temporal and spatial variation of accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ was analyzed by using five-day running average and Kriging interpolation space method.The accumulated temperature zone in Heilongjiang province was rezoned by using of the 80% guaranteed rate of the accumulated temperature.The results showed that the annual average temperature increased obviously at the rate of 0.21 ℃/10y,and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ increased at the rate of 83.95℃ · d per 10 years from 1980s.The average accumulated temperature was 2645.39℃ · d in 1981 -2012.The accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ increased significantly in decadal,and the accumulated temperature ≥ 10℃ zone moved to north and east obviously.The accumulated temperature with 80% guaranteed rate was above 2300℃ · d in most regions,and all zones expanded to north and east.The results could provide references for planting division in Heilongjiang province.